Goldman Sachs believes that the main factor behind the rise in oil prices is the improvement of its fundamentals. Oil demand remains strong, but the OPEC member countries' production cuts have reduced supply and the imbalance between supply and demand has pushed up oil prices. Unless the U.S. shale oil production increases to a greater extent to alleviate supply problems, the capacity of the transportation pipeline limCrude oil trend priceits its exports. Goldman Sachs also added that it will take some time for OPEC members to make up for Iran's oil production constraints.
At the same time, investors worry that the new Mexican government will not put pressure on the market as a result of a bilateral agreement between the North American Free Trade Agreement and the United States. According to people familiar with the matter, disputes surrounding the opening of the oil and gas industry are affecting negotiations.
After the opening of the market on Monday, crude oil prices fell slightly, and are currently still fluctuating within a narrow range of 68 US dollars. But in fact, the key crude oil prices this week still depend on changes in trends on Tuesday and Wednesday, because after the return to fundamentals, the weekly inventory Changes have become the key to dominating crude oil trends. Both API and EIA unexpectedly decreased last week, which helped oil prices record a surge. But at the same time, last week's data actually did not reach the expected level, which shows that experts had predicted that oil prices would fall even more, and EIA also announced that U.S. oil production was rising further, plus the number of U.S. wells announced last weekend. It is also rising further, so the inventory data this week should not be blindly optimistic.
A Saudi official said in an interview that he expects to see oil prices rise above the $80 mark and even hit the $00 mark. This makes investors' expectations for the extension of the production reduction agreement continue to heat up. OPEC, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries led by Saudi Arabia, is likely to reach a new round of production reduction agreements with Russia and other non-OPEC oil-producing countries at the June policy meeting.
The signal to open a position is simpler, just look at the basic pattern. The difficulty lies in the fact that when you are caught in volatility, you set up stop-profit and stop-loss in accordance with the idea of trend trading. The stop-profit is often nothing more than eat, but the stop-loss will be swept again and again. After several stop-losses, even if you eat the big trend Can't make up.
A month ago, perhaps no one would pay much attention to OPEC tomorrow, because OPEC has said many times to maintain production cuts. However, Trump’s sudden attack in the Middle East made OPEC suddenly begin to deal with a difficult problem. The problem is to either increase production to fill the gap in the Middle East, or insist on reducing proCrude oil trend priceduction to allow the United States to reap the benefits. This seems to be a wrong choice for OPEC. In this confrontation between the United States and OPEC, OPEC is completely passive. Whether this meeting will choose to increase or decrease production has become the most concerned event in the crude oil market.
The weekly inventory data is adjusted and compared with the five-year average of any week to obtain comparative inventory data. On the supply side, since the early 1990s, once the U.S. crude oil and refined petroleum product inventories have a deficit relative to the comparative inventory, the price of WTI will rise; when the U.S. crude oil and refined petroleum product inventory exceeds the comparative inventory, the WTI price will fall.
In order to be able to continue to import Iranian oil, India has dealt with the United States for so long, and even said that it would import it regardless of sanctions. While other countries are helping Iran, India is also helping. Although India has been exempted by the United States-it can import 0 million barrels of oil per day within 80 days, but it was unexpected that India suddenly said that it would terminate its oil trade cooperation with Iran.
However, JPMorgan Chase believes that this upward trend will not last. This is because OPEC's increase in the production ceiling means it will return to the level before 207, which makes the currently balanced oil market return to oversupply in the fourth quarter of 208. Level.